Food Security in Ethiopia

Food security in Ethiopia remains vulnerable and highly uneven across regions, despite a notable increase in domestic agricultural production, particularly of cereals, wheat, and livestock products. Key risk factors include the high dependence of agriculture on rainfall, recurrent droughts and floods, the consequences of armed conflicts, inflation and limited household purchasing power, as well as disruptions to logistics and access to food in certain regions.

At the same time, the government is consistently strengthening domestic production and self-sufficiency by expanding irrigated agriculture, mechanization, and the use of improved agricultural inputs, developing early warning systems, and reducing import dependence for key food commodities, particularly wheat. Ethiopia simultaneously possesses significant agricultural production potential and continues to face a high degree of food insecurity and vulnerability, especially among rural households, pastoral communities, and populations in regions affected by conflict and climate-related shocks.

In recent years, despite the challenges and threats, there is a trend towards a gradual improvement in Ethiopia’s food security situation. This point of view is supported by the findings of an original study conducted by the Centre for African Studies at HSE University (see “Africa 2025: Opportunities and Risks” for the details). The study examines the relationship between population growth and the number of undernourished people. Over the long term (2004–2024), despite population growth across many African countries, the number of undernourished people has declined, largely due to increasing returns on investment in agriculture and food systems. Ethiopia isn’t an exception. Between 2004 and 2024, the country’s population nearly doubled, while the share of undernourished people as a percentage of the total population declined from 47% to 22%; the absolute number of undernourished people, measured in mln, also decreased.

Agriculture plays a critical role in the Ethiopian economy. According to World Bank estimates, agriculture accounted for 33% of GDP in 2025, broadly in line with the 31–35% range observed over the past six years. In absolute terms, agricultural value added has continued to increase and from USD 11 bln in 2010 reached approximately USD 57 bln in 2025.

The agricultural sector is also one of the country’s principal sources of employment, accounting for approximately 63% of the labour force. Overall, the sector provides livelihoods for roughly 80% of the population. Agriculture is mainly carried out in rural areas, where up to 78% of the Ethiopian population lives. Ethiopia’s agricultural structure is dominated by smallholder farms (up to 5 hectares), with approximately 21.3 mln smallholder farms in 2022 (out of a total of around 23.8 mln agricultural holdings). Smallholder farms in Ethiopia are generally characterized by low levels of capitalization, high labour intensity, and limited productivity.

According to World Bank data, Ethiopia had approximately 16.3 mln ha of arable land in 2023, compared with a total national territory of 110.4 mln ha. A substantial share of the country is occupied by the Ethiopian Highlands, generally located at elevations of 2,000–3,000 metres, and is characterized by rugged, mountainous terrain. While the highlands contain much of the country’s agricultural potential, steep slopes, soil erosion and land degradation are significantly rendering it. Forests cover up to 15.5% of the country’s territory.

It is therefore likely that the potential for further expansion of agricultural land in Ethiopia is close to being exhausted. Over the past decade, extensive growth of the agricultural sector through the expansion of cultivated land has largely come to an end. According to FAO data, the total area of arable land has remained broadly stable at approximately 16 mln ha since 2018.

Ethiopia is considered one of the most water-abundant countries in Africa, with 12 major river basins generating approximately 122 bln m³ of annual surface water runoff, while estimates of groundwater resources range from 2.6 to 6.5 bln m³. Nevertheless, according to water-stress indicators, the country is classified by the UN Environment Programme as water-stressed, with approximately 1,681 m³ of renewable water resources per capita per year, and has one of the lowest levels of access to water supply and sanitation infrastructure in Africa. This apparent paradox is primarily attributable to the highly uneven geographic and seasonal distribution of water resources, the limited availability of water storage capacity, and underdeveloped water distribution infrastructure. Water runoff is concentrated in the western river basins, while the northeastern and eastern parts of the country receive normal to low levels of precipitation. A great amount of Ethiopia’s water resources is generated by transboundary rivers, making domestic water-resource management a source of cross-border disputes.

Up to 90% of Ethiopia’s irrigation systems depend on rainfall and water abstraction from surface water bodies. As of 2023, approximately 1.3 mln ha of agricultural land was under irrigation. More than half of the irrigation systems are manually constructed, non-mechanized surface irrigation schemes. Approximately 20% of irrigation systems are pump-based, with pumps powered either by diesel generators or manual labour. As of 2024, mechanized drip-irrigation systems accounted for no more than 10% of the country’s irrigation systems.

Crop production accounts for approximately 28% of Ethiopia’s agricultural sector. Within the crop production structure, cereals – primarily teff, maize, wheat, and sorghum – play a leading role, alongside export-oriented commodities, particularly coffee, cocoa, and oilseeds. Approximately ¾ of cultivated land is devoted to teff, wheat, maize, sorghum, and barley. In the 2025/26 marketing year, production volumes are estimated at 6.6 mln t of teff, 10.3 mln t of maize, 6.5 mln t of wheat, 3.9 mln t of sorghum, and 1.18 mln t of millet. Notably, production of most crops remains broadly at levels comparable to those observed over the ten-year period from 2016 to 2025. A significant decline has been recorded only for teff, with current production substantially below the ten-year median of 4.4 mln t, while wheat, by contrast, has demonstrated an increase in production, reaching 6.2–6.5 mln t over 5.5 mln t median.

In aggregate, cereal production amounts to approximately 200–230 kg per capita per year, which is a relatively high level in terms of meeting domestic demand. However, actual consumption may vary considerably across regions due to the uneven distribution of agricultural output. It is also affected by post-harvest and transportation losses, as well as the allocation of part of the harvest to livestock feed.

Other important agricultural commodities include beans and oilseeds, notably sesame (primarily an export-oriented crop, with production of approximately 435,000 t in 2024), as well as soybeans (240,000 t) and cottonseed (179,000 t).

Coffee also plays an important role in Ethiopia’s crop production sector and is the country’s principal export crop. 100% of domestic production consists of Arabica coffee, a high-altitude variety that is more demanding to cultivate and, accordingly, generally commands a higher market value. Ethiopia accounts for approximately 6% of global coffee production, with annual output of around 690,000–700,000 t. As of 2026, the country is the second largest African exporter of unroasted coffee, although it still slightly surpasses Uganda in terms of export value (USD 2.65 bln versus USD 2.4 bln in 2024 - 2025) due to the export of more expensive Arabica varieties.

Livestock production is another major component of Ethiopia’s agricultural sector, accounting for up to 45% of agricultural output. Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa, with approximately 70 mln head of cattle, 95 mln sheep and goats, and 8 mln camels. The principal livestock-producing areas are the northern highlands, particularly Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray, while extensive pastoralism is also practiced in the southern and southeastern pastoral regions, including Afar, Somali, and southern Oromia.

Fisheries in Ethiopia remain a small and relatively underdeveloped subsector, accounting for approximately 3% of agriculture’s contribution to GDP. As a landlocked country, Ethiopia has no access to marine fisheries, and 100% of its aquaculture is concentrated in freshwater bodies. The principal fishing areas include Lake Tana, the country’s largest lake, the East African Rift lake system, and major rivers such as the Blue Nile, Awash, and Tekeze. Total fish production, including both capture fisheries and aquaculture, amounted to approximately 74,000 t in 2022. However, the sector’s estimated potential is considerably higher, at up to 530,000 t per year.

Average dietary energy intake is approximately 2,230 kcal per person per day, which falls within the generally accepted range of physiological energy requirements (2,000–2,500 kcal per day, depending on sex, physical activity, and body weight). For example, average consumption of calories in Russia in 2025 – 2,559 kcal. The Ethiopian diet is based primarily on cereals, particularly teff, maize, sorghum, and wheat, as well as beans and root crops. Approximately 95% of the population consumes starchy staple foods on a daily basis, indicating the predominance of carbohydrates in the national diet.

Cereals and beans also remain the principal sources of dietary protein, while the contribution of animal-source protein is relatively limited. Partly, this can be attributed to the fact that up to 87% of Ethiopian Christians (i.e., just under 40% of Ethiopia’s total population) observe fasting for between 180 and 250 days a year, during which meat, dairy, eggs, and all other animal products are prohibited. The prevalence of such fasting practices has contributed to the abundance of vegan dishes based on vegetables and grains in traditional Ethiopian cuisine.

Overall, daily consumption of animal proteins remains low, despite the role of fasting periods. In 2022, a study was conducted to assess the frequency of consumption of selected food groups among employees of the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research. To ensure a representative sample, the study was conducted across 32 branches throughout the country and included respondents of different ages (20–60+), genders, educational backgrounds, and income levels. The survey found that meat and eggs were most commonly consumed less than once a month (28% and 27%, respectively), whereas legumes and nuts had a relatively high rate of daily consumption (34%). The study was conducted from January 1 to March 31, thus covering both a period without major Orthodox fasting observances and the beginning of the Lenten period (February 28–April 23 in 2022). Dairy products were most frequently consumed two to six times per week (28%). Notably, when consumption was analyzed across the seven days of the week, the lowest intake of animal proteins was recorded on Wednesdays and Fridays – the two weekly fasting days. In 2023, according to the data of 24-hours recall (the proportion of the population who consumed a certain food group at least once in the last 24 hours), only 39% of the population consumed animal-source protein, primarily in the form of dairy products and chicken eggs. Only 14% of the population consumed meat, poultry, or fish.

Consequently, dietary protein intake is predominantly plant-based and may frequently fail to provide a complete amino acid profile, contributing to the prevalence of hidden hunger and micronutrient deficiencies of iron, zinc, and vitamin B12.

Overall dietary quality remains low and is characterized by insufficient dietary diversity, with the average dietary diversity score estimated at approximately 3.3 out of 10 food groups. A substantial share of the population cannot afford a diverse and balanced diet, resulting in a strong preference for the least expensive sources of calories. According to national assessments by the Ethiopian Public Health Institute in 2023, some of the least expensive staple foods include the highly carbohydrate-intensive crops – maize and sorghum. Given their prominent role in the national consumption structure, this suggests a significant reliance of Ethiopian diets on low-cost staple foods. As a result, household food consumption is often optimised primarily in terms of cost rather than nutritional quality, limiting the consumption of more expensive but nutrient-dense foods such as meat, dairy products, fruits, and vegetables.

An increasingly important component of Ethiopia’s consumption structure is wheat. Ethiopia is one of the world’s major wheat producers, ranking 28th globally in 2024 and second in Africa after Egypt, as well as first in Sub-Saharan Africa. Domestic wheat consumption exceeds 7 mln t per year, with the majority – more than 6 mln t – supplied by domestic production, which covers the national demand for about 80%. Imports typically account for approximately 1–2 mln t annually.

Despite certain advances in wheat production and the government’s efforts to achieve self-sufficiency (i.e. the complete elimination of wheat imports), Ethiopia is increasingly becoming vulnerable to what may be termed the “wheat trap”: a situation in which the emergence of a Westernised urban middle class leads wheat to displace other traditional crops in the national consumption structure. As early as the 2010s, wheat- and maize-based processed products had already surpassed teff- and sorghum-based products in terms of consumption. Some urban households tend to mix teff flour with cheaper cereals such as maize or rice in preparing injera, a fermented flatbread traditionally made from teff, which remains a key component of the daily diet.

This situation places countries caught in the “wheat trap” in a position of increased vulnerability, and Ethiopia faces a number of risks associated with this structural dependence. The principal wheat-growing areas are located in the highlands of central, south-eastern, and north-western Ethiopia. Regionally, approximately 57.4% of total wheat production is generated in Oromia (the region bordering Addis Ababa to the south) while Amhara accounts for 27%, the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region for 8.7%, and Tigray for 6%. The uneven geographical distribution of cereal-producing areas means that food shortages can occur in the northern, high-altitude, yet densely populated parts of the country. In such circumstances, the federal government frequently lacks sufficient resources, including transport and other infrastructure, to rapidly redistribute food supplies to areas experiencing acute shortages.

Fertilizers

Fertilizer consumption in Ethiopia has been gradually increasing. In 2023, fertilizer use reached 45.3 kg of active nutrient per ha of arable land, compared with an average of approximately 17 kg/ha in Sub-Saharan Africa. According to World Bank data, this represents an increase of approximately 7 kg/ha over the preceding ten years. Based on available data on fertilizer consumption and the area of arable land, total fertilizer use can be estimated at approximately 603,000 t of active nutrients per year.

The fertilizer consumption structure is dominated by phosphate-based fertilizers, which account for approximately 60% of total consumption. Potassium fertilizers have not been used in Ethiopia since the 1960s, largely due to the widespread assumption that Ethiopian soils are naturally rich in potassium. The findings of several studies have produced mixed results regarding the effectiveness of potassium fertilizer application across different crops. The debate over the potential use of potassium fertilizers in Ethiopia therefore remains ongoing, and further soil assessments and field experiments are required to determine the suitability and potential scale of potash application.

At the same time, Ethiopia possesses significant potential for the extraction of potash and its processing into potassium fertilizers. According to a 2020 report by the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, probable reserves of potash salts in the Danakil Depression, covering an area of approximately 450 km², are estimated at 11–12 bln t, with an average potassium content of 18–25%.

Ethiopia currently has no domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity. Between 2014 and 2016, five facilities operated in the country to blend and enrich imported fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and azophos, through the addition of boron, zinc, and sulfur. Each facility had a design capacity of approximately 438,000 t of fertilizer per year. By 2022, all five facilities had ceased operations due to “low operational efficiency.” The same year, the government initiated measures to restart two of the five mothballed facilities by transferring them to the management of OCP (Morocco). According to an IFDC report, in 2024 only one of the blending facilities, located in Bahir Dar, had resumed operations and started producing soil amendments.

In August 2025, Ethiopia and Dangote Industries Limited signed an agreement for the construction of a USD 2.5 bln fertilizer complex in Gode, with a planned production capacity of up to 3 mln t of urea per year. Construction officially commenced in October 2025, with completion currently targeted for 2029.

All fertilizers used in Ethiopia are currently imported. Over the past five years, annual fertilizer imports have remained relatively stable at approximately 1.5–2.0 mln t, reaching around 1.7 mln t in 2023 and approximately 1.9 mln t in 2024. In value terms, approximately USD 1.3 bln was allocated to fertilizer procurement in 2025.

According to the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), Ethiopia imported approximately 288,000 t of NPS (sulfoammonium phosphate) in 2023, compared with 238,000 t in the 2016–2017 season; 667,000 t of NPS fortified with boron, compared with 377,000 t in 2016–2017; and 765,000 t of urea, compared with 459,000 t in 2016–2017. Imports of all other fertilizer types amounted to only around 25,000 t, including approximately 2,200 t of potassium fertilizers: potassium nitrate (1,500 t), potassium sulfate (439 t), potassium chloride (179 t), and other potassium fertilizers (20 t).

The principal fertilizer supplier is Morocco, represented by the state-owned company OCP. According to IFDC, Morocco accounted for the entire volume of phosphate fertilizer imports in 2021–2022. Among other suppliers are Turkey, China, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

The bulk of fertilizer imports takes place between the fourth quarter and the second quarter, with a peak in the first quarter of a year. This timing corresponds to the end of the main agricultural season and reflects the need to replenish stocks and prepare for the subsequent production cycle.

The Ethiopian fertilizer sector is subject to close state control and regulation. Fertilizer imports and domestic distribution are managed by the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corporation (EABC), a state-owned enterprise with 25 regional branches, which supplies fertilizers through cooperative unions and primary cooperatives at the local level. The corporation sets domestic fertilizer prices subject to approval by the Ministry of Agriculture.

To improve farmers’ access to fertilizers, the government has introduced a fertilizer subsidy system. The entire volume entering the domestic market through the state-controlled import system is sold at subsidized prices. During the 2022–2023 agricultural season, the government directly subsidized fertilizers by approximately 22% of the retail price; by 2025, the subsidy could reach up to 30%, depending on the type of fertilizer and the region. Government expenditure on fertilizer subsidies increased from ETB 15 bln (USD 119 mln) during the 2022 harvest season to approximately ETB 84 bln (USD 520 mln) in 2025. As a result of the subsidy system, fertilizer prices remain relatively affordable for farmers; for example, a 50-kg bag of NPK blends costs approximately USD 11–20, depending on the region.

Seeds

Ethiopia has a relatively comprehensive domestic seed development and multiplication value chain, covering the full process from breeding and production of foundation material to the release of certified seeds. Nevertheless, the country is not fully self-sufficient in seeds: dependence on imports persists for certain crops, particularly vegetables, fruits, and hybrid maize.

National research institutions play a central role in seed breeding in Ethiopia. These include the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), which coordinates a network of specialized research centres covering maize, cereals, oilseeds, and other crops, as well as the Amhara Agricultural Research Institute, Oromia Agricultural Research Institute, and South Ethiopia Agricultural Research Institute. Domestic seed production focuses primarily on major cereal crops, including maize, wheat, and teff. To improve sector monitoring and coordination, the Ministry of Agriculture launched the Ethio-Seed platform in 2024. The platform contained information on 768 registered varieties, 39 seed producers, 66 seed processing facilities, 45 seed production sites, and 2 seed importers, providing an indication of the scale of the formally registered seed system.

Domestic seed production in Ethiopia is partly consisting of a community-based seed production model, under which seed is produced and certified directly by farmer cooperatives. Comprehensive national data on total production volumes is not available. However, a 2024 study covering West and South-West Shewa in Oromia Region found that approximately 11,300 quintals of seed were produced through this system over a five-year period in the region. By November 2025, the community-based seed programme had expanded to more than 700 farming households and covered over 440 ha. The objective of this model is to increase seed supply and to reduce the geographic gap between seed producers and smallholder farmers. Seeds are produced locally, subjected to quality control, and subsequently distributed through local channels.

Despite these advances, Ethiopia continues to rely on imported seeds, primarily for vegetables, fruits, and hybrid cereals. In 2025, Ethiopia’s imports under HS 1209 code – “Seeds, fruits and spores, of a kind used for sowing” – amounted to approximately USD 15.3 mln. The corresponding physical volume is estimated at roughly 250–300 t, compared with 273.2 t in 2023. The largest suppliers were the Netherlands (USD 5.2 mln), Israel (USD 2.8 mln), and India (USD 1.3 mln). At the same time, the Netherlands supplied only 33 t, while India supplied about 110 t, illustrating the exceptionally high unit value of certain specialized seed varieties.

Animal Feed and Veterinary Pharmaceuticals

According to the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture’s 2025 Investment Handbook, the country has 59 enterprises engaged in the production and supply of compound feed. Of these, 32 are privately owned, while 27 are operated by farmer unions. For example, Alema Koudijs Feed PLC in Bishoftu, Oromia Region, is a joint venture between Ethiopia’s Alema Farms and the Dutch company De Heus Animal Nutrition, with an installed capacity of approximately 1.2 mln t per year. According to IFC materials published in 2026, the company is already producing feed for local livestock farms, using, among other inputs, locally sourced maize and soybeans.

The average installed capacity of a feed mill is estimated at 2–3 t per hour, equivalent to approximately 25,000 t per year. However, the actual utilization rate of these facilities is estimated at only 30–40% of installed capacity. The Ministry attributes this low utilization primarily to shortages of raw materials and specific feed ingredients. The main feed inputs include silage, hay, and oilseed cake, all of which are relatively available domestically. At the same time, Ethiopia faces shortages of vitamin premixes, amino acids, and other mineral additives used to fortify compound feed.

Vitamin premixes for poultry production, concentrates, vitamins, and mineral feed additives are currently fully imported. In 2025, Ethiopia imported preparations and products used in animal feeding (HS 230990) amounting to approximately 3,700 t, with a total value of USD 6.5 mln. The largest suppliers were the Netherlands and France, with exports valued at USD 2.1 mln and USD 1.3 mln, respectively; together, these two countries accounted for approximately 51% of the import. Other major suppliers included Hungary, Belgium, and Turkey.

The veterinary pharmaceutical sector, like animal feed production, is not exclusively dependent on imports. One of the country’s principal domestic producers is the National Veterinary Institute (NVI) in Bishoftu. Established in 1964, the institute currently has an installed capacity of more than 300 mln doses of animal vaccines per year. Though the real capacity may be less, it is still of strategic importance: Ethiopia is able not only to partially satisfy domestic demand for veterinary vaccines, but also to export them. In 2023, Ethiopian exports under HS code 300239 (other veterinary vaccines) amounted to approximately 22.9 t, valued at USD 938,000. The principal export destinations were Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Cameroon.

Ethiopia continues to import pharmaceuticals that are not sufficiently produced domestically, particularly antibiotics, anthelmintic and antiparasitic medicines, and vaccines. Precise estimates of veterinary pharmaceutical imports are complicated by the fact that trade statistics do not consistently distinguish between medicines intended for human and veterinary use. In 2025, imports of animal vaccines were estimated at approximately 15 t, valued at USD 1.8 mln. The principal suppliers were France, South Africa, and the Netherlands.

Access to veterinary medicines and vaccines in Ethiopia is relatively satisfactory overall. As of 2020, 81.6% of surveyed livestock owners reported having access to veterinary medicines. However, accessibility varied significantly by region, ranging from 97% in highland pastoral areas to 54% in lowland areas dominated by crop farming.

Agricultural machinery

The Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture reports in its new National Agricultural Mechanization Strategy 2026–2035 that in 2025 the country had approximately 21,666 tractors, 10,722 combine harvesters, 18,234 threshers, and 506,112 irrigation pumps. Tractors and combine harvesters are predominantly imported in the form of components and subsequently assembled locally. The principal companies engaged in the import and assembly of machinery components are Ethiopian firms that often represent a single international brand. These include Kegna Machinery Company (861 John Deere tractors in 2025), Moenco (41 New Holland tractors), and Ries Engineering (82 Massey Ferguson tractors).

A fleet of approximately 21,700 tractors nationwide is extremely small relative to the scale of Ethiopia’s agricultural economy. For comparison, France, with a comparable area of arable land (16.9 mln ha versus 16.3 mln ha in Ethiopia), is registering 37-40,000 new tractors annually. In South Africa, where the area of arable land is smaller (12 mln ha), the tractor fleet stood at approximately 109,000 units in 2025. Based on the country’s arable land area, 21,700 tractors correspond to approximately 1.33 tractors per 1,000 ha. Domestic production of high-technology agricultural machinery and related components remains underdeveloped.

Ethiopia is a landlocked country and relies heavily on neighbouring countries for access to international maritime trade. Approximately 95% of the country’s foreign trade, including food imports, passes through the ports of Djibouti, while the remainder is handled primarily through Berbera Port in Somaliland, Port Sudan in Sudan and Port Lamu in Kenya. This dependence on a single principal transport corridor creates a significant systemic vulnerability: any political or security destabilization in Djibouti or in the Red Sea region could directly affect the reliability of Ethiopia’s food supply chains.

Cargo moving to and from the Port of Djibouti is transported predominantly by rail. The Addis Ababa–Djibouti railway has been operational since 1917 (electrified in 2018). According to the U.S. Commercial Service, the railway is capable of transporting approximately 3,500–4,000 t of cargo per train.

Cargo moving between Ethiopia and Djibouti passes through the Modjo Dry Port, Ethiopia’s largest inland logistics hub and a critical node in the national import and export system.

The port has a maximum handling capacity of approximately 136,000 TEU per year. In 2025, more than 90% of Ethiopia’s imports and exports reportedly passed through the facility. Modjo performs a wide range of logistics and trade-related functions, including container unloading, temporary storage, customs clearance, cargo inspection, documentation processing and verification, cargo allocation to trucks, and onward transportation to final warehouses.

Ethiopia’s dependence on a limited number of transport corridors creates a significant vulnerability for the country’s food supply system and contributes to the fragility of its food security environment. The absence of direct access to the sea and limited competition among alternative transport routes significantly increase logistics costs. In Ethiopia, these costs may account for approximately 22–27% of the final value of many goods.

From a regulatory and administrative perspective, Ethiopia requires all imports to be conducted through Ethiopian nationals or locally registered entities holding official importer or distributor status with the Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration. An importer or authorized agent must apply for an import license, obtain an individual importer identification number from the Ministry, and register with the National Bank of Ethiopia to obtain foreign-exchange approval. This process typically involves the issuance of a letter of credit covering the full value of the import transaction. For food products, additional certification by the Ethiopian Food and Drug Authority is required, while processed food products must also be accompanied by a Certificate of Analysis.

Agricultural development is embedded in Ethiopia’s national development plans and government programmes. For example, increasing fertilizer use and agricultural yields is explicitly addressed in the government’s Ten-Year Development Plan 2021–2030. The plan sets out the government’s broader strategy for achieving objectives ranging from poverty reduction to national prosperity. It includes measures aimed at strengthening the productive base, developing transport and logistics infrastructure, and expanding mineral resource production. In the fertilizer sector, in addition to increasing domestic capacity to produce and blend the required fertilizer formulations, the plan promotes the use of organic fertilizers, which, alongside improved land-management practices, could reduce demand for chemical fertilizers. The plan envisages “increasing the distribution of mineral fertilizers from 16.1 mln quintals (1.6 mln t) to 32.9 mln quintals (3.3 mln t)”, corresponding to an annual increase in fertilizer consumption of approximately 8%.

The National Agricultural Investment Plan 2021–2030 (NAIP) is the investment framework of the Ministry of Agriculture, integrated into the national planning system and subordinate to the broader Ten-Year Development Plan 2021–2030 and the Ministry of Agriculture’s own ten-year sectoral plan. It is intended to guide investment decisions by the government, development partners, the private sector, NGOs, and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector. The plan identifies 13 priority agricultural value chains for investment: wheat, rice, coffee, maize, sesame, soybeans, tomatoes, onions, avocados, mangoes, poultry, dairy, and meat production. To support these priority areas, the plan identifies an additional 10 cross-cutting investment areas, including irrigation development; feed production and supply; agricultural mechanization; agricultural trade and commercialization; research and extension; agricultural finance; land management and utilization; private-sector development; climate-change adaptation and response; and strengthening institutional capacity for programme implementation.

The government support framework for the agricultural sector also includes a range of other national programmes and strategic plans covering specific subsectors of agriculture, among others are:

Yelemat Tirufat (“Bounty of the Basket”) and the Livestock and Fishery Sector Development Project, both aimed at supporting the livestock sector; Ethiopia Food Systems Transformation and Nutrition Roadmap 2026–2030, aimed at strengthening the overall resilience of food production and supply chains, including processing, storage, and logistics; National Agri-Finance Implementation Roadmap (NAFIR), 2025–2030, developed by the Ministry of Agriculture and the National Bank of Ethiopia to mobilize and expand financing for the agricultural sector; National Agricultural Mechanization Strategy, 2026–2035, developed by the Ministry of Agriculture to promote the mechanization of agriculture.

Thus, agriculture in Ethiopia is viewed not as a standalone sector, but as a key mechanism of structural economic transformation. The government’s policy model envisages a transition from low-productivity, predominantly smallholder production towards a more mechanized, irrigation-based, commercialized, and processing-oriented agricultural sector. The state plays a central role in ensuring Ethiopia’s food sovereignty, and the principal instruments for maintaining food system stability remain under government control. This is also reflected in the fact that private ownership of land does not exist in Ethiopia. Legally, all land is owned by the state, although it may be leased for periods of up to 99 years. Smallholder farmers hold perpetual usufruct rights but generally cannot lease their holdings on a long-term basis, with the exception of the Amhara Region. The Urban Lands Lease Holding Proclamation of 2011 allows the government to determine land values when lease rights are transferred.

Another instrument is subsidization: as of 2026, fertilizer is the principal agricultural input subject to a nationwide price subsidy, with government expenditure on fertilizer subsidies reaching ETB 84 bln in 2025. Other agricultural products are supported through government programmes for production and distribution (for example, the distribution of fruit-tree seedlings to farmers under the Food System Resilience Program), but generally not through direct price subsidies or administered price controls.

At the national level, Ethiopia has a system of early warning and early response to climate-related threats. The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC), the federal body responsible for disaster risk management, issues early warnings, analytical assessments, and response measures concerning anticipated climate-related shocks. Ethiopia also has a national meteorological service, the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI), as well as the Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system and the Ethiopian Digital Agro-Climate Advisory Platform (EDACaP). However, Ethiopia’s meteorological data-collection systems continue to face significant limitations, including inadequate coverage in the eastern pastoral regions and the aging of monitoring equipment. The country therefore does not yet have comprehensive and evenly distributed nationwide coverage with high-quality agrometeorological data. Nevertheless, the range of available risk-management instruments remains limited, leaving the country vulnerable to shocks and food-system crises. Many of these instruments remain poorly integrated into a unified institutional framework and demonstrate limited inter-agency coordination. For example, the strategic reserve system operates primarily at the national level, while regional reserve mechanisms remain underdeveloped - grain and agricultural storage facilities are virtually absent in the Somali region in southeastern Ethiopia.

Research institutions, regulatory authorities, and meteorological agencies have few effective platforms for coordinating actions and developing rapid-response mechanisms. The fertilizer subsidy system is also insufficiently flexible: linking subsidized fertilizer prices more closely to region-specific agronomic recommendations and optimal application rates could significantly improve fertilizer-use efficiency and strengthen the effectiveness of public support. Deeper institutional coordination, combined with targeted, region-specific interventions tailored to local needs and risk profiles, could significantly strengthen Ethiopia’s resilience to food insecurity.

Another increasingly important instrument is the digitalization of the agricultural sector. The Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR) 2025-2032, developed by The Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI), is planned to be implemented in 2 phases (2025-2029 and 2030- 2032). In line with the strategy, a robust digital ecosystem for agriculture is planned to be built.

The first phase outlines 12 objectives, among these are the development of agricultural intelligence, amelioration of supply chain and financial services to enhance the availability of inputs and machinery, provide crop insurance, and streamline payment processes, improve data collection and availability, and provide high-tech solutions to supply farmers with use cases. During the second phase, the Government plans to introduce Smart Farming – tools for productivity growth and natural resource management, the digital stack that will consist of four subcomponents (the user facing layer, the integration layer, the analytics layer, and the data and content layer, including crop and weather information, market trends, and educational resources).

Thus, while the digitalization of Ethiopia’s agricultural sector is progressing, significant opportunities remain, particularly in priority areas where digital solutions could be further deployed. Implementation of geospatial solutions for livestock and land monitoring in real-time, such as GIS & Remote Sensing, as well as IoT-based agricultural monitoring, sensors for soil tracking, implementation of AI for predictive analytics, food traceability systems may increase transparency in food supply chains.

Thus, despite the existence of a relatively well-developed system of government support for the agricultural sector, Ethiopia remains vulnerable to food-system crises. Key risks include institutional weaknesses in monitoring and early warning, as well as the contraction of donor funding and external assistance. Following the dissolution of USAID, Ethiopia lost more than USD 350 mln in funding, representing one of the largest reductions among African countries, with adverse implications for food security and related humanitarian programmes. Despite progress towards self-sufficiency in wheat and other cereals, Ethiopian agriculture remains characterised by low productivity (with wheat yields of approximately 3 t per hectare), limited irrigation capacity, and weaknesses in agricultural distribution and supply-chain infrastructure.

The principal opportunities for expanding the agricultural sector and strengthening food sovereignty are concentrated in agricultural intensification. Ethiopia has a strong policy interest in increasing fertilizer use, as well as in expanding irrigation systems, including pumping equipment, small reservoirs, and water-lifting stations. Efforts to raise agricultural productivity will also require expanded seed production, agrochemical use, and agronomic extension and advisory services.

One important avenue for strengthening coordination among regulatory authorities, producers, traders, and other stakeholders across the system is the further digitalization of the agricultural sector. Digital platforms, applications, and integrated information systems connecting stakeholders across different domains could help adapt national plans and targets to the specific needs and conditions of regions. Digitalization could also strengthen systems for early warning, price monitoring, yield forecasting, and climate-risk assessment, while linking these functions not merely to forecasting, but to automated mechanisms for early financing and response.

Accordingly, Ethiopia’s strategic priorities include reducing dependence on rain-fed agriculture through the development of irrigation capacity; expanding agricultural mechanization; enabling high-productivity smallholder farmers to become investors by facilitating access to additional land plots; improving livestock productivity through the development of feed production and animal-health systems; expanding horticultural production; increasing the participation of private investors in agriculture; strengthening institutional capacity across the sector; and enhancing the resilience of agriculture to climate change.